U.S. Municipal Solar Capacity to Break the 6 GW Ceiling by 2023
In a recent joint study by Wood Mackenzie and the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA), U.S. municipal solar installations witnessed a significant slowdown, shrinking by 6% in 2022 and a further 13% in the first quarter of 2023. This decline can be largely attributed to persistent supply chain hiccups that plagued the sector throughout the past year. Moreover, connectivity obstacles and locational constraints have particularly stifled growth in pivotal state markets such as Massachusetts and Maine.
Despite this short-term slump, there’s an uplifting light at the end of the tunnel. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a strong rebound for municipal solar growth starting in 2024, extending well into the next half-decade. According to their projections, the market in existing regions is set to expand at an average annual growth rate of 8%, catapulting the total solar capacity to an impressive nearly 14 gigawatts (GW) by 2028. Importantly, this projection is a conservative estimate, as it doesn’t consider the potential skyrocketing impact of new incentive programs that could dramatically boost these figures.
Caitlin Connelly, a Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, weighed in on the prospects for the sector’s near-term growth. “The trajectory we’re anticipating will primarily be fueled by the continued triumphs of initiatives in states like New York and Illinois,” Connelly stated. She also emphasized that promising policy updates emanating from Maryland, Minnesota, and New Jersey are contributing factors to the expected upswing.
Furthermore, California is emerging as a game-changer with its proposed new solar program. “If enacted, California’s initiative alone could account for a staggering 20% of Wood Mackenzie’s national growth outlook between 2024 and 2028,” Connelly added.
In summary, while the U.S. municipal solar sector has encountered a series of setbacks lately, the future landscape appears to be sunnier. With favorable policy updates, existing programs maturing, and new initiatives like California’s potentially coming into play, the municipal solar market is well-positioned to not only recover but also thrive in the years ahead.
